BBC weather prediction for Thursday 3rd Oct 2019
‘Spectacular Hurricane Lorenzo continues to churn in the Central Atlantic in a region where no hurricane so intense or so large has ever been observed’ weather underground. Update> Lorenzo now highest CAT 5 , winds 257 kph/160 mph
Sea temperatures in Ireland are always way too low for a Hurricane. But Lorenzo developed in mid Atlantic where the temperatures were hotter than normal, due in part to the record hot summer in the northern hemisphere.
So we can say the Lorenzo’s phenomenal size and strength is in part promoted by the global warming emergency, and, though normal, sea temperature round Ireland are way higher than this time last year (see comparative maps below).
An unusually supportive environment has propelled Lorenzo to its record strength for this part of the Atlantic…”Sea surface temperatures are close to 1°C (1.8°F) warmer than average, putting the ocean well above the 26°C (79°F) threshold for tropical development.
It is very possible that the storm will curve north and miss Ireland, or weaken to a normal strong gale, which the west of Ireland is totally accustomed to.
Comparison sea temperature anomalies in 2019 and 2018 http://www.climate4you.com/SeaTemperatures.htm
Storm Ophelia was the last recent big ex hurricane to hit Ireland, https://www.theverge.com/2017/10/16/16481940/hurricane-ophelia-ireland-meteorology-weather Plus, the last time before that a hurricane that powerful hit Ireland was 1961
”Models agree that Lorenzo will carry out a classic recurving path over the central and eastern Atlantic as it gradually weakens, reaching the northwestern Azores Islands on Tuesday afternoon or evening. Lorenzo will be a massive wave generator due to its high intensity, longevity, and huge size.
Lorenzo’s tropical-storm-force winds extended out 450 miles from northwest to southeast at 11 am EDT Friday. On Thursday afternoon, when Lorenzo’s wind field was not as expansive, an analysis of the Atlantic hurricane database by Eric Webb found that Lorenzo was the largest hurricane ever observed so far east, with a size that ranked in the 85th percentile for all historical Category 4 and 5 hurricanes”https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/C
update: By Sunday evening no sign was found of the 11 missing crewmen and the ship was confirmed sunk. Initially the search was hampered by waves up to 7 meters (23 feet) high and visibility of less than 1 nautical mile (1.8 km)
AZORES IN PATH OF MONSTER
Hurricane Lorenzo, a Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale, could affect the Azores islands by Tuesday, October 1, according to the US National Hurricane Center (NHC). The Portuguese Institute of the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) forecasts that the western islands of Flores and Corvo and central islands of Terceira, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, and Graciosa will be most affected.
”Track forecasts from the 12Z Saturday GFS and European models are in close agreement on bringing Lorenzo very close to the 30°W/40°N point on Wednesday. Such a track would thread the needle between the far-northwest Azores islands of Corvo and Flores and the rest of the archipelago.
Lorenzo’s wind field is so vast—hurricane-force winds are predicted to extend 75 miles east of the center by Tuesday—that the predicted track could bring winds approaching hurricane force in the northwest and/or central Azores even if no direct landfall occurs.
Ensemble model output from Friday night shows enough left-to-right uncertainty in Lorenzo’s track that all of the Azores should keep tabs on the hurricane’s progress toward the islands. Given Lorenzo’s vast size and strength, very high seas and sustained winds in the high tropical-storm range (50-70 mph), with higher gusts, could cause widespread trouble across large parts of the Azores on a variety of potential tracks-
Even as it becomes a post-tropical cyclone, Lorenzo may still bring widespread tropical-storm-force winds to Ireland and the United Kingdom around Thursday, along with very heavy rain.”. Category 6 | Weather Underground
Hurricane Lorenzo.. NHC track latest: Hurricane Lorenzo to hit Ireland…
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