Iran’s new ‘moderate’ leader needs to retaliate dissuasively to the Israeli killing of Haniyeh while avoiding tit for tat escalation and US intervention
from thefreeonline on 4th Aug 24 info by Melkulangara Bhadrakumar / AlMayadeen/ Indian Punchline. (on Telegram: https://t.me/thefreeonline)
Iran’s first direct response to Israel’s Terrorist attack in April ’24 was spectacular and mostly symbolic with detailed warnings avoiding casualties.. .https://thefreeonline.com/2024/04/13/live-reports-on-irans-massive-retaliation-attack-on-israel/
Amidst the cascading tensions in the Middle East we follow the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh by Israel and the vows of ‘revenge’ in Tehran.
Iran’s retaliation after Israel’s killings of Iranian leaders in April was a master stroke, with a public spectacle of 100’s of drone and missile attacks, with prior warnings, calculated to cause minimum damage or injury, along with a probable hypersonic attack, with warning, destroying a military base.
Iran’s clever response, along with US reluctance to join in, forced Israel for the first time to back down and stop its tit for tat terrorist escalation policy, enhancing Iranian prestige with the ‘global south’ majority.
Huge demonstrations continue by Israelis against ‘mad dog’ Netanyahu and his neo fascist military regime, even as he is feted and applauded in Washington.
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei has already ordered a direct retaliation strike on Israeli territory for the terrorist Haniyeh killing . Haniyeh was a key leader managing the shuttle diplomacy seeking a ceasefire in Gaza, and his elimination saves the Netanyahu faction from pressure as the ceasefire is shelved for now.
But what can Iran do to successfully stand up to Israeli terrorism, satisfy its supporters and allies, and avoid a bloody war with the west provoked by ‘mad dog’ Netanyahu?
And could Israel now even roll out a False Flag with its ‘Hannibal Option’ and massacre its own civilians to force a US vs Iran war?
In remarks at the Majlis on Tuesday after the swearing-in ceremony, new moderate President Pezeshkian reaffirmed that his government’s foreign policy will strive for constructive engagement with the world while upholding Iran’s national dignity and interests.
It is naive to believe that Israel acted on its own to attack Iran’s sovereignty, which is tantamount to an act of war, without some sort of US approval. It is this ‘known unknown’ factor that makes the situation very dangerous.
Israel also fears a renewed Iranian push for negotiations for a nuclear deal that might open a pathway for the removal of western sanctions as well as a vista of broad-based peace and cooperation.
Against this backdrop, the IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi has sought an urgent meeting with Pezeshkian
And the Israeli regime is desperate to change the media narrative away from the ongoing Gaza genocide and West Bank annexations.
Israel can no longer count on Western US instigated hatred and isolation of Iran. Even the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman congratulated Pezeshkian by phone on his election victory and last Thursday, the Saudi Minister of State handed over to Pezeshkian a letter from King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud expressing hope for more constructive steps in developing bilateral relations with Iran
Similarly, the historic Arab League delisting of Hezbollah recently shows the extent to which Saudi Arabia and other Arab states are moving away from Washington’s anti-Iranian positions.
The bottom line is, Pezeshkian’s call for regional unity to counter extremist influences. The Iranian leader proclaimed, “Radical voices should not drown out the voices of the nearly two billion peace-loving Muslims. Islam is a religion of peace.”
A war with Iran will be very unlike Israel’s previous wars with the Arab states. It would probably be open-ended until Israel allows the creation of a Palestinian state. Israel’s capacity to retaliate would get steadily get depleted, as happened vis-a-vis Hezbollah. The medium and long-term advantage lies with Iran, a much bigger country than Israel, whose hypersonic missiles penetrate Israeli defences, and it will be a war on multiple fronts with non-state actors.
Mourners gathered at the Imam Muhammad Abd-al Wahhab Mosque for Friday prayers before the burial of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, Doha, Qatar, August 2, 2024
The Washington Post, citing Pentagon officials, has written that keeping in view a possible escalation, the US Navy has already concentrated 12 warships in the region. Among them is the aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt, which is located in the Persian Gulf with six destroyers.
18 April 2024… 1st direct response to Israeli attacks. Iran’s Truthful Promise: 400-500 missiles, drones launched at ‘Israel’.. AlMayadeen
There are also five US warships in the Eastern Mediterranean and another aircraft carrier is reportedly on the way..
Netanyahu is confident about US support, which was manifest in the warm welcome, shocking Standing Ovations and ‘blank check’ he received during his recent trip to Washington. Netanyahu abruptly cut short his visit and ordered the Teheran killing with US support.
The renewed ‘rock solid’ media, arms and political US backing of Israel after 9 months of Genocide in Gaza might be explained by generations of Israeli bribery, infiltration to ‘lever’ politicians and the elite, including monetary and social blackmail, even with revelations of ‘Epstein’s Island’ type scandals.
A bloody response from Iran would, Netanyahu hopes, transform him internationally from a ‘deranged mass murderer’ to ‘an oppressed Semite victim’, at least in the Western media, and might finally force the US into catastrophic war with Iran. All while he wave the Jericho Card, the threat to unleash a Nuclear Holocaust on his neighbours.
Netanyahu is now a cornered dictator in a shrinking group of nazi leaders, the director, screenwriter and Fuhrer of the show, while the other protagonists, including the US, Iran and Europeans, are forced to react as best they can.
Iran, its proxies meet to discuss retaliation against Israel, say sources Iranians gather for the funeral procession of assassinated Hamas chief, Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran, August 1, 2024. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
Melkulangara Bhadrakumar Former career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. Devoted much of his 3-decade long career to the Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran desks in the Ministry of External Affairs and in assignments on the territory of the former Soviet Union. After leaving the diplomatic service, took to writing and contribute to The Asia Times, The Hindu and Deccan Herald. Lives in New Delhi.
see also – today… Missile attack by Yemen’s Houthi rebels hits container ship in first attack in 2 weeks
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