A full version of the alleged 28-point US drafted peace plan to bring an end to the war in Ukraine appeared on line courtesy of Ivan Katchanovski @I_Katchanovski (you can read the original post on X here).
According to my friend, Pepe Escobar, this document was leaked to the Russian press by Kiril Dimitriev. This proposal is worse than I imagined. During an interview with Maria Zakharova that I hosted on Wednesday, along with Alexander Kazakov and Pepe Escobar, she stated that the Russian Foreign Ministry had not yet received an official copy of the proposal.
Once the proposed document is submitted to the Russian Foreign Ministry, I believe that Sergei Lavrov will use careful diplomatic language welcoming it as a starting point for negotiations, but there is no way in hell that Russia will agree to this in its current form.
Russia is winning on the battlefield and is confident that it will prevail, not only over Ukraine, but over NATO. The proposed document assumes that Russia is looking for a way out… It is not.
The biggest problem with this document is that it assumes that Russia and Ukraine are negotiating from a position of equal strength. However, given the current collapse of the Ukrainian military, it will be Russia who will dictate the terms.
I have highlighted in BOLD some of the more problematic portions of this document:
1. Ukraine’s sovereignty will be confirmed.
2. A full and comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine, and Europe. All ambiguities of the past 30 years will be considered resolved.
3. It is expected that Russia will not invade neighbouring countries and that NATO will not expand further.
The word, expected, is a major stumbling block… Russia will insist on an iron-clad guarantee that NATO will end expansion and remove weapon systems from Romania and Poland that are capable of launching nuclear missiles.
4. A dialogue will be conducted between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States, to resolve all security issues and create conditions for de-escalation, thereby ensuring global security and increasing opportunities for cooperation and future economic development.
5. Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees.
6. The size of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be limited to 600,000 personnel.
In February 2022, at the start of Russia’s special military operation, the total size of the Ukrainian military was about 260,000–280,000 active-duty personnel, including all branches (ground forces, air force, navy, airborne, marines, and special operations). There is no way that Russia will agree to a 600,000 number. During the negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul in March 2022, Russia demanded a peacetime cap of 85,000 active personnel for Ukraine’s armed forces, a figure far below Ukraine’s pre-war standing army of approximately 200,000–250,000 troops. This was part of broader Russian demands for demilitarization, including restrictions on tanks (e.g., fewer than 400), aircraft (e.g., 60–80 combat aircraft), missiles (range limited to 40 km), and artillery systems.
7. Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that it will not accept Ukraine in the future.
8. NATO agrees not to deploy troops in Ukraine.
9. European fighter aircraft will be stationed in Poland.
I believe that Russia will demand specific limitations on the type of NATO aircraft that will be allowed in Poland.
10. U.S. Guarantees: The United States will receive compensation for the guarantee. If Ukraine invades Russia, it will lose the guarantee. If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a decisive coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be reinstated, recognition of new territories and all other benefits of this deal will be revoked. If Ukraine without cause launches a missile at Moscow or Saint Petersburg, the security guarantee will be considered invalid.
As currently presented, this is a problem for Moscow, especially given the history of NATO working with Ukrainian intelligence services to launch false flag attacks.
11. Ukraine retains the right to EU membership and will receive short-term preferential access to the European market while the issue is under consideration.
12. A powerful global package of measures for the reconstruction of Ukraine, including but not limited to: a. Creation of a Ukraine Development Fund to invest in high-growth sectors, including technology, data-processing centres, and artificial intelligence. b. The United States will cooperate with Ukraine on the joint reconstruction, development, modernisation, and operation of Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, including pipelines and storage facilities. c. Joint efforts to restore war-affected territories, including the reconstruction and modernisation of cities and residential areas. d. Infrastructure development. e. Extraction of minerals and natural resources. f. The World Bank will develop a special financing package to accelerate these efforts.
13. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy: a. The lifting of sanctions will be discussed and agreed upon gradually and on an individual basis. b. The United States will conclude a long-term economic cooperation agreement aimed at mutual development in the fields of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data-processing centres, rare-earth mining projects in the Arctic, and other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities. c. Russia will be invited to return to the G8.
14. Frozen assets will be used in the following way: US$100 billion of frozen Russian assets will be invested in U.S.-led reconstruction and investment efforts in Ukraine. The United States will receive 50% of the profits from this undertaking. Europe will add another US$100 billion to increase the total investment available for Ukraine’s reconstruction. Frozen European assets will be unfrozen. The remaining frozen Russian assets will be invested in a separate American-Russian investment vehicle that will implement joint American-Russian projects in areas to be determined. This fund will be aimed at strengthening bilateral relations and increasing shared interests in order to create strong motivation not to return to conflict.
Paragraphs 13 and 14 are delusional proposals. Russia will insist that all sanctions be lifted immediately. Moreover, given the growing importance of BRICS, Russia has little interest in “returning to the G8.”
15. A joint American-Russian working group on security issues will be established to facilitate and ensure the fulfillment of all provisions of this agreement.
16. Russia will legislatively enshrine a policy of non-aggression toward Europe and Ukraine.
17. The United States and Russia will agree to extend the validity of treaties on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and arms control, including START-1.
18. Ukraine agrees to remain a non-nuclear state in accordance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
19. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP)will be restarted under IAEA supervision, and the generated electricity will be split equally between Russia and Ukraine (50:50).
Paragraph 19 is a non-starter… ZNPP is officially part of Russia and Russia will not share this with Ukraine.
20. Both countries undertake to introduce educational programmes in schools and society that promote understanding and tolerance of different cultures and the elimination of racism and prejudice: a. Ukraine will adopt EU rules on religious tolerance and protection of linguistic minorities. b. Both countries agree to lift all discriminatory measures and to guarantee the rights of Ukrainian and Russian media and education. c. All Nazi ideology and activity must be rejected and prohibited.
21. Territories: a. Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk will be recognised de facto as Russian, including by the United States. b. Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along the line of contact, which will mean de facto recognition along the line of contact. c. Russia renounces other annexed territories (probably referring to Russian-occupied parts of Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts – Ed.) that it controls outside the five regions. d. Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk oblast they currently control; this withdrawal zone will be regarded as a neutral demilitarised buffer zone, internationally recognised as territory belonging to the Russian Federation. Russian forces will not enter this demilitarised zone.
Russia is not going to agree to freeze anything along the line of contact in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia… Those territories are not constitutionally part of the Russia Federal Republic. Russia also will not “renounce” its control over annexed territories… It will insist that the people in those territories have the right to vote whether to remain part of Ukraine or to become part of the Russian Federal Republic.
22. After future territorial arrangements are agreed, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine undertake not to change these arrangements by force. Any security guarantees will not apply in the event of violation of this commitment.
23. Russia will not obstruct Ukraine’s commercial use of the Dnipro River, and agreements will be reached on the free transportation of grain across the Black Sea.
Russia’s control of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia gives it de facto control of the Dnipro River… Russia is not going to surrender control of that to a Ukraine that is aligned with the West.
24. A humanitarian committee will be created to resolve outstanding issues: a. All remaining prisoners and bodies will be exchanged on the “all-for-all” principle. b. All civilian detainees and hostages will be returned, including children. c. A family reunification programme will be implemented. d. Measures will be taken to alleviate the suffering of conflict victims.
25. Ukraine will hold elections 100 days after the agreement is signed.
26. All parties involved in the conflict will receive full amnesty for actions committed during the war and will undertake not to file claims or pursue complaints in the future.
I do not believe that Russia will agree to full amnesty.
27. This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by a Peace Council headed by President Trump. Predetermined sanctions will apply in the event of violations.
28. Once all parties have agreed to and signed this memorandum, the ceasefire will enter into force immediately after both sides withdraw to the agreed positions so that implementation of the agreement can begin.
There is that word again: ceasefire. Putin’s position on this matter was presented on June 14, 2024. Russia will insist on Ukraine’s demilitarization… Short of that, there is no viable path forward for negotiations. Russia is not going to put its security in the hands of Donald Trump. He is a lame duck leader and there is no guarantee on the table that will satisfy the Russians that this proposed agreement would be enforced by his successor.
Here is the video of the interview with Maria Zakharova and General Apti Aluadinov (Note — The video is huge and it will take some time for it to upload: https://www.bitchute.com/embed/TUF9zBwxsKaJ
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Calm down , comrades, Trump’s peace plan is just another nothing burger.
Lightbringerer
21 hours ago
Larry, obviously Russia is sincerely trying to improve its outreach to the West through efforts like these. Which is great and well past time. However the Russian Foreign Ministry and National Unity Club could have vastly improved its receptive Western audience to this video by doing one simple thing: providing sub-captions in English to those who want to listen to it in that language. Obviously by providing a translator they had thought they had it covered. However, the fact that Ms. Zakharova’s voice and the translator’s voice comes through at the same sound level makes it very hard to distinguish between Maria”s Russian and the translator’s English. Obviously the National Unity Club has a largely Russian audience hence that decision on the sound mix. Completely understand. But hence my suggestion that providing an option for sub-captions in both English in Russia might have been a good compromise there, for the English speaking audience. Just thought, if you read this, you might pass it on for future events like this, which are very valuable to people in the West who want to hear the Russian perspective from such an important figure in the Russian govt.
You’re not alone . I gave up , multiple voices , same volume .
Where_is_an_Arthur_Asher_Miller_when_you_need_one
1 day ago
Would think the Foreign Ministry of a country capable of building hypersonic and nuclear powered weapons in quantity could also make videos with decent sound and captioning and provide timely official translations of important speeches and interviews (including this one if it was worth Zakharova and Aluadinov’s time to begin with), not only now but a good decade ago at least. Even if this is hosted by the International National Unity Club, certainly they should have been able to work something out somehow. Gave up trying to follow.
Aki
2 days ago
Awesome article and great analysis Larry. What an excellent counterpoint to the views expressed on Glenn Deisen by Gil Doctorow, whom I generally have a lot of time and respect for. However the recent show with Glenn indicated above yielded some opinions that I think were off base. Recently Gil suggested that the KIA for Russia is closer to 1:1, which from what I gather listening to other experts, is completely way off. Now here today again Gil suggests that it would be nigh on impossible for Russia to win the war (which is defined by Russia as completing the SMO objectives), and I don’t agree with this at all. Russia doesn’t have to negotiate anything as you so astutely explain Larry. Anyhu, brilliant as always mate.
Last edited 2 days ago by Aki
AussieBaz
3 days ago
I did not see an mention of denazification in this paper. I doubt Russia will allow Ukraine to exist run by Nazi’s
It could very well be that Trump and a few people around him are serious about ending the war in Ukraine. Maybe he means it, maybe it’s just maneuvering. But that isn’t even the decisive question. Trump never acts for humanitarian reasons or because he supposedly loves peace so much. Three elephants are in the room.
• The midterm elections and the internal power struggles.
Anyone who pays close attention realizes that the whole tariff issue is a hollow promise. Tariffs are simply passed on to consumers—also to his own voters. While the wealthy have no problem with rising prices, it hits the poor and the middle class hard.
Nobody knows what new “surprise” awaits him when Trump—or someone pulling the strings—gets out of bed in the morning. No major investor will pour millions or even billions of dollars into building production facilities amid the domestic political chaos and unpredictability in the U.S.
U.S. debt keeps rising and rising. The train is hurtling ever faster, unchecked, toward the abyss.
Over the next three years, I rule nothing out anymore—from the continued chaotic Trump presidency, to his impeachment, all the way to Trump’s violent attempt to install himself as a dictator. It all depends on what the powerful financial aristocracy behind the scenes decides. I refuse to keep believing that Trump holds real power. Trump is a choleric, narcissistic, overweight ass in pants—president or not. In an oligarchy, oligarchs buy and control everyone and everything. Dossiers exist on everyone and everything, containing more information about a person than they themselves are aware of. Anyone who can’t be blackmailed is simply allowed to die. Even presidents are no exception. Even Private Hitler would never have come to power if big capital hadn’t put him there. He was able to consolidate his domestic power through sheer violence and the absence of today’s technologies. That option no longer exists today.
Domestic politics decisively shapes foreign policy. In this sense, it may indeed relate to the war against Russia.
• Finances and resources
I’ve already mentioned the debt problem. I can imagine that certain key figures in the CIA and the Pentagon have realized that their war against Russia has failed and is hopeless—despite their excessive, career-advancing qualifications in obedience and “ass-kissing.” The U.S. simply lacks the necessary resources, finances, technology, and personnel to continue the war against Russia.
Because in the not-too-distant future, the U.S. would have to fight Russia directly—with its own personnel, which it doesn’t have (aside from a few thousand mercenaries being slaughtered in Ukraine). Yesterday I saw videos showing Ukrainian forces executing captured Russian soldiers, and others where Russian soldiers executed several captured—allegedly foreign—mercenaries. It’s possible that Russian soldiers are doing the same to foreign mercenaries as Ukrainians are doing to prisoners. That’s war. But over the past 11 years, I’ve already seen so many videos where the executioners were Ukrainians staging the killings to make it look as if they were committed by Russians. So caution is warranted.
The U.S. is fighting a losing battle on many fronts simultaneously. Even troop movements without combat cost gigantic sums of money and material resources. Just maintaining the fleet off Venezuela costs astronomical amounts every hour—and the subsequent maintenance of the equipment likewise. This is often overlooked by most information consumers when discussing global U.S. military bases and troop activities. …… The era of unlimited money printing is coming to an end soon❗
• Does a treaty actually have lasting validity in practice?
I believe this is the crucial point. How many treaties have already been broken or terminated by the U.S./the West? This is precisely the issue that must worry Russian decision-makers the most.
On this matter (from the Russian perspective), here is my conclusion: Russia must occupy all of historic “Novorossiya” (including Odesa and Kyiv) and, after subsequent referendums, incorporate it into the Russian Federation. Good Lord—even the top Nazis in Ukraine speak to each other in their native Russian when they don’t feel observed (as seen in the released snippets of wiretapped conversations among Ukraine’s corrupt leaders). On Kyiv’s streets, the native Russian language is increasingly spoken openly and fearlessly—something recently highlighted by the German blogger and journalist Thomas Röper, who has been sanctioned by the EU, in his latest video.
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