48C = 118.4 F
August 1, 2018, The intense heat that has waxed and waned across various parts of Europe this summer is on the move once again, and residents of Spain and Portugal need to be prepared.
Temperatures could approach or exceed all-time highs across parts of the Iberian Peninsula from Thursday to Saturday.
A ridge of high pressure that’s been lodged over and near northern Scandinavia will be eroding later this week, as a separate ridge builds northward from Africa and a trough approaches Europe from the northwest.
This pattern will pull hot, dry air from Algeria and Morocco into the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal), along with some Saharan dust. By the weekend, a building surface high across Ireland and Britain will help push the scorching air mass back southward across the higher terrain of central Iberia. This will lead to downslope flow across parts of Portugal and southwest Spain that could heat the air even further.
The expected pattern is so extreme that the surface-temperature predictions of forecast models have to be approached with a grain of salt. Such models often struggle when trying to get a handle on the most unusual situations, especially when surface temperatures have a chance of going “superadiabatic.”
A superadiabatic lapse rate means that conditions are warming the surface air even more than one would expect simply from bringing air of a certain temperature down to the surface from aloft. By itself, that descent produces a warming of 10°C per kilometer, or about 5.4°F per 1000 feet.
With that caveat in mind, some of the model forecasts are jaw-dropping. Highs are projected in some model output to approach the neighborhood of 50°C (122°F) across parts of central Portugal northeast of Lisbon. For context, the hottest temperature ever reliably recorded in Portugal is 47.4°C (117.3°F), which was notched at Amareleja on August 1, 2003, near the peak of Europe’s infamous and deadly heat wave of that year.
Spain’s all-time heat record of 47.3°C (117.1°F), set in Montoro on July 13, 2017, may also be in jeopardy. Forecasts from the UK Met Office suggest that 48°C (118.4°F) is possible in Iberia. The Weather Company is predicting that temperatures could reach 47°C by Saturday in the Alentejo and Tejo regions of Portugal, with readings of 40°C (104°F) possible in southern France.
If you’re heading to Spain or Portugal this week, the potentially record breaking temperatures are expected to be inland. ️The heat will be a little less intense at the coast ️
Watch until the end to see how temperatures compare across the rest of Europe! pic.twitter.com/OMzdZgmQSm
— Met Office (@metoffice) August 1, 2018
Above: The parched banks of the Danube River in Mariaposching, southern Germany, on Wednesday, Aug. 1, 2018. Wildfire a serious threat as the heat moves southwest into Spain and PortugalThe heat-up across Spain and Portugal will bring an intensified risk of wildfire in a region that’s quite vulnerable to it. Iberia experienced two catastrophic fires last year.
The first was a complex of blazes in June that killed at least 66 people in Portugal, making it the nation’s deadliest wildfire event in modern records. It was followed in October by a frenzy of more than 7,900 fires that struck northwest Spain and north Portugal, killing at least 49 people. In a freakish circumstance, the October blazes were stoked by winds flowing into ex-Hurricane Ophelia as the storm moved toward Ireland.
Thanks to meteorologist Katie Greening at The Weather Company’s office in Birmingham, UK, for background used in this post.
The Free 
Reblogged this on Ace News Desk.
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