A world with temperatures 3 to 5°C higher than pre-industrial levels would be vastly different from the one we inhabit today.
On 22nd October 2024 by Garry Rogers at garryrogers.com via https://wp.me/pIJl9-EyC at https://wp.me/pIJl9-EyC Telegram t.me/thefreeonline
The World Bank[i] cautions that many regions would be unable to adapt to such a temperature increase. Ecosystems would collapse, crops would fail, extreme weather events would become more frequent and severe, and rising sea levels would reshape coastlines and inundate major cities. The social and economic foundations of global civilization would be strained to their limits.
This article outlines four key strategies that towns and farms can implement to prepare for and adapt to a changed world. While these strategies alone cannot fully prepare us for the scale of the impending disruption, they represent essential steps towards building resilience and maintaining some semblance of societal stability.
Universal Basic Income (UBI) and Job Guarantee Programs
As climate change disrupts traditional economic sectors and displaces workers, we need new systems to ensure basic economic security. At the local level, communities can experiment with and advocate for these programs.
Universal Basic Income (UBI) could provide a crucial safety net as people transition between precarious forms of employment[ii]. For communities, this might involve piloting a small-scale UBI program, starting with the most vulnerable community members, partnering with nearby communities to create a regional UBI pilot, or advocating at the state and federal level for UBI policies.
Alternatively, a job guarantee program focused on climate adaptation and mitigation work could both provide employment and address crucial climate-related needs[iii]. This could involve creating local government jobs focused on climate resilience projects or establishing a community corps that provides training and employment in climate-adaptive skills.
Coastal Adaptation for Worst-Case Climate Change September 16, 2024 In “Adaptation for Climate Change”
These programs will be essential not just for individual wellbeing, but for maintaining social stability in the face of severe economic disruption. Without them, there is a risk of widespread poverty, social unrest, and the collapse of local economies.
Agriculture and Food Security Adaptations to Worst-Case Climate Change September 23, 2024 In “Adaptation for Climate Change”
Climate Adaptation Education
We must overhaul current education systems to prepare people for life in a climate-changed world. This goes beyond just teaching about climate science—people need practical skills for survival and adaptation.
Schools and community education programs need to prioritize:
- Sustainable agriculture and permaculture techniques: Teaching these skills can help ensure food security even as traditional agriculture becomes more challenging.
- Water conservation and purification methods: As water resources become strained, these skills will be crucial for public health and agriculture.
- Renewable energy systems maintenance: As we transition away from fossil fuels, these skills will be in high demand.
- Disaster preparedness and response: With more frequent extreme weather events, everyone in the community should have basic emergency response skills.
- Climate-resilient construction techniques: This knowledge will be crucial for adapting built environments to new climate realities.
- Conflict resolution and community organizing: These social skills will be vital for maintaining community cohesion in times of stress.
Colleges and vocational schools need to add programs aimed towards careers that will be crucial in a climate-changed world, such as environmental engineering, climate-resilient urban planning, and crisis management[iv].
Energy System Adaptations for Worst-Case Climate Change September 30, 2024 In “Adaptation for Climate Change”
Preparing for Climate Migration and Resource Conflicts
While communities may not be directly crafting international policy, they need to prepare for the reality of climate-driven migration and potential resource conflicts. A growing resource of immigration policy analysis can help sort through the issues[v].
The World Bank estimates that by 2050, there could be 143 million internal climate migrants in just three regions: Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America[vi]. In a 5°C scenario, these numbers could be far higher, and communities may either receive climate migrants or see members of their own community forced to move.
To prepare for climate migration, communities should develop policies and infrastructure to accommodate potential population growth, create programs to integrate newcomers into local society and the workforce, and create regional community partnerships for managing climate migration.
To prepare for potential conflicts over resources, communities should conduct a thorough assessment of local resources and vulnerabilities, develop robust local and regional resource management plans, and create community mediation programs to resolve resource-related disputes.
These efforts align with calls from experts for new international legal frameworks to manage mass movements of people and to protect the rights of climate refugees[vii].
Water Management for Worst-Case Climate Change September 9, 2024 In “Adaptation for Climate Change”
Addressing Social Limits to Adaptation
Even with the best technological solutions and policy frameworks, social and cultural factors will constrain adaptation to climate change. These “social limits to adaptation” include things like values, perceptions, and power structures that can hinder effective climate action[viii].
Communities need to implement strategies that:
- Challenge climate denial and promote science-based decision making: This could involve public education campaigns, partnerships with local scientists, and policies that require consideration of climate projections in all major decisions.
- Address inequality and power imbalances: We must ensure that adaptation efforts don’t leave behind vulnerable groups. This might involve targeted assistance programs, inclusive decision-making processes, and policies to reduce local economic inequality.
- Promote social norms that value sustainability and collective wellbeing: Community events, public art, and local media to shift cultural narratives can contribute to long-term thinking and collective action.
- Foster social cohesion and community resilience: Building strong social networks and a sense of shared identity can help communities survive the stresses of climate change. This might involve creating more public spaces, supporting local organizations, and instituting regular community-building events.
These efforts may require changes to local political systems, moving towards forms of governance that can better handle long-term, complex challenges like climate change[ix]. It will be worthwhile to explore models like participatory budgeting or citizens’ assemblies on climate issues.
Managing Ecosystems with Worst-Case Climate Change October 14, 2024 In “Adaptation for Climate Change”
Economic Conclusion
Implementing these strategies will be challenging. They require a level of social cooperation and political effort that may seem beyond current capabilities.
They also raise difficult ethical questions: How do we balance the needs of potential climate migrants with those of current community members? How do we ensure that local UBI or job guarantee programs are economically sustainable in a world of climate chaos? How do we decide which local adaptation efforts to prioritize when resources are limited?
These strategies, while necessary, are far from sufficient. In a 4 or 5°C warmer world, we’ll see the collapse of many of the systems and institutions we take for granted today. No amount of adaptation can fully prepare us for the scale of disruption we will encounter.
However, by implementing these strategies, communities can build local resilience and adaptive capacity. They can create local models that might inform larger-scale efforts. And they can foster the community cohesion and shared purpose that will be crucial for facing the challenges ahead.
Moving forward with these efforts, communities must remain flexible and ready to adjust strategies as conditions change. They must also remain connected to the broader world, advocating for the global action necessary to prevent the worst impacts of climate change.
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Economic Notes
[i] World Bank, 2012
[ii] Standing, 2017
[iii] Tcherneva, 2018
[iv] Mochizuki and Bryan, 2015
[v] Fouka, 2024
[vi] Rigaud et al., 2018
[vii] Biermann and Boas, 2010
[viii] Adger et al., 2009
[ix] Dryzek and Pickering, 2019
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