Supercomputer predicts revolution

Feeding a supercomputer with news stories could help predict major world events, according to US research.

A study, based on millions of articles, charted deteriorating national sentiment ahead of the recent revolutions in Libya and Egypt.

While the analysis was carried out retrospectively, scientists say the same processes could be used to anticipate upcoming conflict.

Based on specific queries, Nautilus generated graphs for different countries which experienced the “Arab Spring”.

In each case, the aggregated results of thousands of news stories showed a notable dip in sentiment ahead of time – both inside the country, and as reported from outside.

 Media “sentiment” around Egypt fell dramatically in early 2011, just before the resignation of President Mubarak.

For Egypt, the tone of media coverage in the month before President Hosni Mubarak’s resignation had fallen to a low only seen twice before in the preceding 30 years.

According to Kalev Leetaru, such a system could easily be adapted to work in real time, giving an element of foresight.

“That’s the next stage,” said Mr Leetaru, who is already working on developing the technology.

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2 thoughts on “Supercomputer predicts revolution”

  1. quite interesting! i would like to know more about this method – can you tell me the source of this media analysis info please … either as a reply here or maybe email me? thanks!

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    1. Hi Birgit..just put the title in Google and you can choose from media reports. In fact I was misled by the title, thinking that Revolution is, not was, predicted

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